A number of the world’s greatest file firms have expressed bemusement over the outcomes of a survey within the Nordics which recommend that paying subscribers to music providers in Sweden are in decline.
Final week, MBW reported on a YouGov survey performed with Scandinavian assortment societies throughout Could 2024, during which 4,000 people had been quizzed throughout the Nordics.
These interviews urged a downturn within the variety of folks paying for music streaming in Sweden.
Of the YouGov ballot’s respondents based mostly in Sweden, 56% mentioned they had been Premium subscribers to a music subscription service, down from59% in mid-2022.
In the meantime, the identical 2024 survey additionally urged that Swedes had been rising extra economically delicate to the rising value tags of music streaming subscriptions.
But these outcomes, in keeping with main firms within the international recorded music enterprise, must be seen as a survey-specific aberration slightly than an indicator of a wider development.
MBW has seen inner information from international recorded music firms (knowledgeable by information equipped by their streaming companions) which exhibits that the whole variety of paying account holders of audio music streaming subscriptions in Sweden as of Could this 12 months was roughly2.87 million.
On the finish of 2022 (December), this determine – which displays subscribers throughout Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, Amazon Music, Deezer and SoundCloud – stood at round 2.80 million. (These numbers don’t embrace free trialists.)
“We’re not seeing explosive development in Sweden lately, however we’re seeing stability.”
Report firm government
As one file firm government instructed MBW whereas presenting this information: “No, we’re not seeing explosive development in Sweden lately, however we’re seeing stability. Regardless of value rises, the general development previously two years is barely upward.”
One other file firm exec mentioned merely: “The YouGov information doesn’t vibe with our personal.”
Different inner file firm information we’ve seen displays the whole variety of paid-for streaming accounts in Sweden — i.e. it contains customers of Household Plans and so forth., who don’t pay the invoice for his or her subscription however use the providers.
Once more, this information has been obtained by our sources immediately from streaming suppliers available in the market.
It exhibits that there have been 5.06 millioncomplete customers of paid-for accounts in Sweden as of Could 2024; that was up from 4.52 million in June 2022.
The file firm execs we spoke to declined to touch upon the file as a result of, as talked about, this streaming information from Sweden has been equipped to them – underneath situation of confidentiality – by digital companions.
Our sources’ figures do appear to tally, nonetheless, with different accessible proof.
MBW contacted industry-standard market monitor Luminate at present (July 2) for his or her response to the YouGov survey.
Luminate doesn’t publicly disclose subscriber numbers for providers, however it does carefully observe complete streams of each paid-for and ad-supported accounts in a number of markets globally.
Picture Credit score: Maarten de Boer
“When trying on the first half of 2024, our information exhibits that premium on-demand streams in Sweden, that means people who got here from paid subscriptions, grew in quantity by greater than 700 million when in comparison with the primary of half of 2023, or by +4.3% [YoY].”
Rob Jonas, Luminate
Rob Jonas, CEO of Luminate, revealed: “When trying on the first half of 2024, our information exhibits that premium on-demand streams in Sweden, that means people who got here from paid subscriptions, grew in quantity by greater than 700 million when in comparison with the primary of half of 2023, or by +4.3% [YoY].”
Jonas added: “On common, premium streams made up 86% of on-demand streaming exercise in Sweden throughout the first half of 2024, with ad-supported exercise representing the remaining 14%.
“That [premium vs. ad-supported] share breakdown stays in line with 2023 information.”
What else has MBW realized from the confidential service-level information we’ve seen from Sweden these previous couple of days?
Spotify has by far essentially the most subscribers of any service in Sweden, with a market share of roughly 88%.
And right here’s an enormous one: Our sources agree that Sweden is a worldwide {industry} market-leader in terms of the cancellation charges – or ‘churn’ charges – of paying music streaming subscribers.
In keeping with the information we’ve seen, Spotify’s Premium churn fee in Sweden sits at round 1.0% of all subscribers. That compares, for instance, to roughly 2.0% in the US.
(There was a fractional leap on this churn fee in each nations after Spotify elevated its costs in each Sweden and the US final 12 months, however this has since settled again to ~1.0% in Sweden and ~2.0% within the US, in keeping with our sources.)
So, with all of that in thoughts, how come YouGov’s information appeared to point out a transparent decline in respondents who use a paid-for music service in Sweden in 2024 vs. 2022?
As we identified in our preliminary write-up, that could possibly be a case of pattern dimension: Bear in mind, the YouGov survey was of 4,000 folks throughout the Nordics, with solely a portion of those in Sweden – a rustic of over 10 million folks.
There is likely to be one other clarification, too.
The YouGov survey particularly gathered information from music streaming customers in Sweden who had been ‘Premium subscribers [or] bundlers’.
One file firm insider urged that, over the previous 12-18 months, Spotify has actively cracked down on account sharing on its Household plan, in circumstances the place non-related people who find themselves not residing in the identical handle share accounts.
Inside YouGov’s pattern dimension, this will have resulted in a small decline in Premium account customers in Sweden.
The broader market proof, although, factors to a extra optimistic development: as MBW wrote the opposite day, IFPI information exhibits that Sweden’s industry-wide recorded music subscription streaming revenues truly elevated by over 6% 12 months over 12 months in 2023.
(Sweden was the world’s sixteenth largest recorded music market by income final 12 months, in keeping with IFPI.)
In 2021, two years earlier than it did the identical within the US, Spotify raised its month-to-month particular person Premium value in Sweden by 10%, up from 99 SEK (round USD $9.99) to 109 SEK (round $10.99).
One other value rise in Sweden arrived final 12 months.
At present, Swedish prospects who take up an particular person Premium subscription are provided a month’s free trial to ad-free Spotify. After this, they need to pay 119 SEK (round USD $11.21) per 30 days.Music Enterprise Worldwide
