August 16, 2024 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Gold touched $2,500 an oz. for the primary time in historical past in spot buying and selling, whereas COMEX futures reached $2,538.
Gold’s positive aspects at this time come as extra weak spot within the US economic system comes as constructing permits hit a greater than year-low and housing begins fell to a four-year low.
Whereas weaker-than-expected housing market numbers, together with a slew of knowledge this week, might enhance hopes for extra fee cuts this 12 months, particularly in September, they haven’t revived the case for a 50-bps reduce on the subsequent assembly. In different phrases, an emergency fee reduce to avoid wasting the economic system is unlikely after markets appear to have overpriced it. Regardless of that, gold continued its historic positive aspects.
The likelihood of a 25-basis level reduce in September is 76.5% in comparison with 23.5% for a 50-basis level reduce, in keeping with the CME FedWatch Device.
In distinction to the prevailing negativity in regards to the well being of the US economic system, we noticed a higher-than-expected improve in shopper confidence at this time, in keeping with the College of Michigan’s survey for August. This sentiment was pushed by optimism about private monetary and financial outlook, in keeping with the survey. This may increasingly assist calm fears in regards to the US economic system falling into recession, as improved sentiment may result in help for spending.
Gold might be able to maintain its positive aspects with out vital progress within the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, as they might finally result in defusing a wider regional battle. Nonetheless, whereas yesterday’s negotiations in Qatar didn’t end in a breakthrough, “some gaps have been narrowed,” in keeping with US Nationwide Safety Council spokesman John Kirby. In the meantime, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu caught to his demand that his forces stay within the Philadelphi hall, in keeping with The Washington Submit. The main target stays on the outcomes of at this time’s negotiations.
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